The Week: How Leverage Broke the AI Trade

The Week: How Leverage Broke the AI Trade

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Summary

The Prof G Pod’s weekly recap examines how leverage amplified and then shattered the AI trade during a single tumultuous week. The episode centers on the collapse of Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness fund — which had been up 439% for the first half of 2026 and peaked at roughly $45 billion in assets — after five-times leverage triggered margin calls and forced a fire sale of its entire public equity portfolio to Ken Griffin’s Citadel. The fund was reduced to managing approximately $10 billion, and Aschenbrenner is reportedly also selling his Anthropic stake. Hosts note that the investing community had treated Aschenbrenner as a near-prophetic figure before the blow-up — “AI Jesus” in their framing — making the collapse a sharp lesson in leverage rather than thesis.

The episode draws a direct parallel to South Korea’s simultaneous market crisis, where single-stock leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung and SK Hynix — with 2x to 5x daily multipliers — helped push South Korea’s market down 44% from June highs, erasing $2 trillion in value. Goldman Sachs estimates 3.4% of South Korea’s adult population received a margin call; the government responded with a debt counseling hotline tied to its suicide prevention infrastructure.

Jim Chanos, the short-seller who famously called Enron’s collapse, offers a structural explanation for why the AI boom looked so healthy for so long: AI capex is recognized immediately as revenue and profit by chip companies like Nvidia, while the companies spending that money capitalize and depreciate it over 5-10 years — artificially inflating S&P earnings and masking systemic risk until the leverage unwinds.


📺 Source: The Prof G Pod – Scott Galloway · Published August 07, 2026
🏷️ Format: Podcast

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