The Next War Is Already Here — Yaroslav Azhnyuk, The Fourth Law & Noah Smith, Noahpinion

The Next War Is Already Here — Yaroslav Azhnyuk, The Fourth Law & Noah Smith, Noahpinion

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Descriptions:

The Latent Space podcast brings together Yaroslav Azhnyuk—founder of The Fourth Law and co-founder of PetCube—and Noahpinion author Noah Smith for a deep conversation on AI-powered autonomous weapons and the real-time lessons emerging from the Russia-Ukraine war. Azhnyuk describes his journey from building pet camera hardware in San Francisco to developing military drone systems after Russia’s full-scale invasion began on February 24, 2022, a day after he landed in Kyiv.

The scale figures are striking: Ukraine produced approximately 4 million FPV drones in 2024 alone, while Azhnyuk estimates China has the manufacturing capacity to produce 4 billion comparable drones—a gap he calls a critical warning sign for Western defense planning. He outlines a practical taxonomy of AI autonomy levels in weapons systems, noting that AI-assisted target designation—where AI surfaces a ranked list of targets for human confirmation—is already deployed in active conflict, including in operations attributed to US and Israeli forces in Iran.

The conversation confronts the core tension in military AI safety: the risk of friendly fire and civilian harm from autonomous systems versus the existential threat of falling behind an adversary that is already deploying them at scale. Azhnyuk argues that ethical deliberation, while important, cannot be allowed to become a development bottleneck when adversary deployment threatens national survival. The episode is one of the most specific and technically grounded public discussions of AI deployment in active warfare available from a practitioner directly involved in the conflict.


📺 Source: Latent Space · Published May 18, 2026
🏷️ Format: Interview